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The Chance of a La Nina For the 2017-2018 Winter Just Rose From 22% to 60%

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Guys.

I’m serious.

This isn’t even clickbait (ok maybe a little bit).

The Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society just posted a report that the odds of a La Nina winter just rose from 22% last month to 60% this month. The report, which was only just released today, states that because of a rising cooling trend in the Pacific Ocean as well a greater certainty in forecasting this time of year, a La Nina weather pattern could form as a soon at November and last well into the winter!

Now for the kids at home reading this who live under a rock and don’t quite understand what La Nina is and how it affects our ski season, well my layman analysis is the following: the Pacific Ocean will get cooler which means cooler storms which means cooler temperatures which means lower freezing levels which means snow rather than rain which means SUPER EPIC POW IN YOUR FACE (like last year).

 

My quantitative weather analysis brought to you in partnership with Brick Tamland

 

So I’m not saying a La Nina winter is guaranteed, but things certainly do seem to be on the up for such an event to occur.

Regardless, I’d say it’s time to strap in, get stoked for winter, and pray to whatever higher being you might believe in for a fruitful harvest of chowder this winter.

This has been Felix with the first of many speculative clickbait-y weather posts of this coming winter, see you all soon.


Official report can be read below for those curious:

The central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). ENSO-neutral conditions were apparent in the weekly fluctuation of Niño-3.4 SST index values between -0.1°C and -0.6°C (Fig. 2). While temperature anomalies were variable at the surface, they became increasingly negative in the sub-surface ocean (Fig. 3), due to the shoaling of the thermocline across the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Though remaining mostly north of the equator, convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific Ocean and slightly enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over a small region of the far western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalously easterly over a small area of the east-central Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter (Fig. 6). However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (Fig. 7). Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov

Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

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